• Both new cancer cases and cancer deaths worldwide are expected to jump
• There were 18.5 million new cancer cases and 10.4 million cancer deaths globally in 2023.
• New cancer cases expected to increase to 30.5 million, and cancer deaths at 18.6 million in 2050.
• About 4.3 million worldwide cancer deaths in 2023 were attributed to modifiable risk factors and potentially preventable.

An estimated 30.5 million people are forecast to receive a new cancer diagnosis and 18.6 million are expected to die from cancer in 2050, an almost 75% increase from 2024, according to a new global burden of disease report.

It reports that there has been a rapid increase in the global number of cancer cases and deaths between 1990 and 2023, despite advances in cancer treatment and greater efforts to tackle cancer risk factors.

There were 18.5 million new cases in 2023, more than double that in 1990, while the number of cancer deaths was 10.4 million, an increase of 74%.

In 2023, cancer was the second leading cause of deaths globally, after cardiovascular diseases. Breast cancer was the most diagnosed cancer worldwide for both sexes combined that year, with tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancers being the top leading cause of cancer deaths.

The study from the Global Burden of Disease Study Cancer Collaborators, published in the journal The Lancet, included data for 204 countries and territories worldwide on 47 cancer types or groupings.

Increasing impact of behavioural risk factors

The study estimates that 42% (4.3 million) of all global cancer deaths in 2023 were attributable to 44 potentially modifiable risk factors. Behavioural risk factors contributed to the most cancer deaths across all country income levels in 2023.

Tobacco contributed to 21% of all cancer deaths globally. It was the leading risk factor in all country income levels except low-income countries, where the leading risk factor was unsafe sex, which linked to12.5% of global cancer deaths.

Most global cancer deaths in men (46%) in 2023 were linked to tobacco, unhealthy diet, high alcohol use, occupational risks, and air pollution. In women (36%), leading risk factors were tobacco, unsafe sex, unhealthy diet, obesity, and high blood sugar.

Lop-sided global cancer burden

Recent global trends showed stark disparities in cancer burden around the world. Over half of the new cases and two-thirds of the deaths are expected to occur in low- and middle-income countries.

Although cancer death rates decreased by 24% worldwide between 1990 and 2023, the reduction appears to be driven by high- and upper- middle-income countries.

Rates of new cases worsened in low-income (up by 24%) and lower-middle-income countries (up by 29%), highlighting the disproportionate increases in cancer new cases and deaths around the world.

Funding for the study was provided by the Gates Foundation, St Jude Children’s Research Hospital, and St Baldrick’s Foundation.